The science of weather forecasting is very complex and any prediction of the weather can only be made with a certain probability. The sheer number of ever-changing variables is cause enough to reduce the field to an inexact science. This science on the global warming has been considered to be settled by the mainstream until recently, when the Climategate scandal broke out and the follow up news and findings raised the doubt about the once ‘settled science.’

The Climategate scandal began with the internet leak of thousands of emails and other documents from the University of East Anglia based Climate Research Unit (CRU), when someone accessed a server used by the CRU. These emails and documents showed the prominent climatologists to be exaggerating the anthropogenic effects on the climate change by manipulating data and withholding information. The three supposedly independent reviews ordered, have submitted their report and have largely freed CRU of any malpractice. More details on the scandal and the follow-up review committees can be found in one of the recent article of Swaminathan Aiyar for The Economic Times.

What followed was a nightmare for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), supposedly the most authoritative organisation in the field of climate research. Their 2007 Working Group Report had claimed that at the current rate the glaciers in Himalayas will disappear by the 2035, which proved to be a hoax. Then came the news that the IPCC claim the global warming would destroy 40% of the Amazon cover, was actually based on a report by an environmental pressure group. The IPCC has also been accused of using sources such as a mountaineering magazine and a student paper for scholarly works.  It only shows that the mainstream scientists have been over-stating the anthropogenic forces and under-stating the natural variability.

Forbes columnist Shikha Sood Dalmia, in one of her recent columns for the online magazine has argued that the Global Warming Movement is dead. Oh, I wish she were true. There is no doubt that the hysteria about the Climate Change and the urgent need to curb the man-made causes has gone into hibernation for the time being. But the monster will most certainly be back to complete the unfinished mission. The proposed solution to the Climate Change crisis, such as carbon rationing (“trading”) and others, will further perpetuate the already entrenched blood-sucking bureaucracy, only this time the monster would have graduated from national to international level.

The road to prosperity and higher standard of living has already been traveled by much of the western world through capital accumulation and industrial growth. It’s only off late that the developing countries have joined the party, and the results in this short span of time have been overwhelming. The need of the hour is to keep a tight vigil and do not let the private agenda of the special interest groups succeed, all in the name of saving the planet.

Post Disclaimer

The opinions expressed in this essay are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of CCS.

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Kumar Anand

Kumar Anand is an economist with over ten years of experience working with for-profit companies, government ministries and not-for-profit think tanks. Kumar has previously worked with National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) where he was part of the research team that assisted the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC). Before joining NIPFP, he worked with Hong Kong-based Asianomics Limited, where he kept a watch on the developments in the Indian sub-continent markets. Before his present role, Kumar worked with Centre for Civil Society in New Delhi, where he created an online library of Indian liberal works to preserve and revive the rich Indian liberal and free market tradition.

Currently, Kumar leads the research team at Nayi Disha in Mumbai, where he is exploring the right set of principles-based rules that should govern a city and a nation and the ways to create a popular demand for such a change. Kumar's research interests are in Indian economic history, urban economics and public choice economics. He is a graduate of Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune.